Declaración comercial del tercer trimestre de 3
EMBARGO 07:00 | 01 November 2023 |
AIB Group pLC - Actualización comercial del tercer trimestre de 3 (NO AUDITADO)
Desempeño muy sólido en el primer trimestre impulsado por el crecimiento de los ingresos
"I am pleased to announce that the Group had a very strong third quarter performance continuing the momentum from the first half and we expect that to continue in the final quarter. Notwithstanding geopolitical uncertainty, AIB remains in a position of strength, delivering on our strategy and supporting our 3.2 million customers as well as the wider economy. 2023 is set to be a record year for the Group and we expect to deliver RoTE in excess of 20%. As we conclude the successful delivery of our three year strategy, we are now preparing for the next phase of the Group's development and remain committed to the creation of value for all our stakeholders and delivery of sustainable returns. We look forward to updating the market on our new medium-term targets and capital distribution plans in March 2024."
- Colin Hunt, director ejecutivo
Puntos clave: (todas las comparaciones con YTD septiembre versus período equivalente 2022 a menos que se indique lo contrario)
· Continued positive momentum in Q3 with very strong full year performance expected
· La orientación para 2023 se revisó al alza para esperar:
o Net interest income (NII) > ?3.75bn and net interest margin (NIM) > 3%
o Other income c. ?850m
o Rutina(1) en 2023 > 20%
· Los ingresos totales aumentaron un 70% respaldados por el entorno de tasas de interés más altas
o NII up 95%; NIM to septiembre 3.08%
o Otros ingresos aumentaron 10%, aumento de 8% en ingresos por honorarios y comisiones
· Precio(2) hasta 13% reflecting an enlarged Group, the wider inflationary environment and the introduction of variable remuneration
· Small net credit impairment writeback in Q3
· Gross loans up ?5.6bn to ?66.8bn (Dec 22: ?61.2bn) driven by Ulster Bank loan book acquisitions
o c. ?4bn of Ulster Bank tracker mortgages migrated in Q3
o New lending of ?8.5bn; green lending of ?1.7bn representing c. 20%
o Mercado hipotecario share 32.1% YTD(3)
· Strong and diversified funding: Customer accounts up ?2bn to ?104.4bn (Dec 22: ?102.4bn); US$1bn bond issued in September
· Fully loaded CET1 of 16.2% (Jun 23: 15.7%) driven by strong organic capital generation and comfortably ahead of regulatory requirements
· Seven ESG bond issuances to date totalling ?5.75bn
Rendimiento Financiero
The Group recorded a very strong financial performance in the first nine months and is set to deliver an exceptional full year outcome.
In the nine months to September NII increased by 95% versus the equivalent prior year period, reflecting higher loan volumes, increased interest rates and the slower than anticipated pace of deposit migration and associated interest expense, which we expect to evolve. In the first nine months we continued to increase the size and lengthen the duration of our structural hedge programme in order to reduce future NII sensitivity and volatility. NIM for September YTD was 3.08% versus H1 2023 of 2.94%. We expect NII of > ?3.75bn and NIM of > 3% for FY 2023 which compares to our previous guidance of NII of > ?3.6bn and NIM of > 2.90%.
Other income increased 10% on the equivalent prior year period with strong performances across most fee-based lines. Other income included non-recurring revenue in respect of forward contracts for the acquisition of Ulster Bank loan portfolios. We expect FY 2023 other income of c. ?850m which compares to our previous guidance of c. ?780m.
Operating costs were up 13% reflecting the enlarged Group, the impact of wage and general inflation and an allowance for limited variable remuneration payable in 2024. FTEs at end Q3 2023 were 10,502 (Jun 23: 10,133). We expect costs in FY 2023 to be c. ?1.8bn with a CIR of c. 40%, inclusive of a c. ?30m allowance for limited variable remuneration with further employee benefits to commence in 2024.
AIB acknowledges the increase in the bank levy following the publication of the Finance Bill 2023 and estimates an annual charge for 2024 of c. ?100m which compares to an estimated c. ?40m charge in 2023 (FY 2022: ?37m). Regulatory costs and bank levies are expected to be c. ?165m in 2023.
A small net credit impairment writeback was recorded in Q3. At this point, we remain vigilant to emerging risks and maintain our conservative, forward-looking and comprehensive ECL approach. For FY 2023 we expect a cost of risk (CoR) at the lower end of our 30-40bps through-the-cycle range.
Hoja de balance
Gross loans of ?66.8bn were up ?5.6bn (Dec 22: ?61.2bn) primarily driven by ?4.7bn further migration of both Ulster Bank loan portfolios and new lending exceeding redemptions. NPEs were ?2.2bn or 3.4% of gross loans (Dec 22: ?2.2bn or 3.5%). We expect customer loans to grow by c. 10% in 2023 with the final tranche of Ulster Bank tracker mortgages expected to migrate early in 2024.
Total new lending for the nine months to September was ?8.5bn, down 6% versus the equivalent prior year period.
New mortgage lending in Ireland was ?2.8bn down 7% on the equivalent strong prior year period which included a high level of switching activity. Mortgage market share to September was 32.1%(3). Personal lending was up 27% to ?0.9bn reflecting our enlarged customer base and an increase in consumer credit demand. SME credit demand in Ireland remains subdued and new lending was in line with the equivalent prior year period.
New lending in Capital Markets decreased by 9% as growth in corporate banking and ECAI was offset by lower property lending reflecting reduced activity levels in the commercial real estate sector. New lending in AIB UK decreased by 13% compared to the equivalent prior year period.
We continue to support our customers with the transition to a lower-carbon economy. New green lending for the nine months to September was c. 20% of new lending and we are on track to deliver our ?10bn climate action fund by the end of 2023.
Financiamiento y Capital
AIB's balance sheet remains strong with ample and diversified funding. Customer accounts increased to ?104.4bn (Dec 22: ?102.4bn) with 77% in our Retail Banking segment (Dec 22: 74%). The mix between current accounts and deposits remains broadly unchanged from December 2022. The Group completed a number of MREL issuances this year including a ?1bn social bond, a US$1bn bond and more recently a ?750m green bond in October placing us comfortably ahead of our MREL target. The Group continues to have strong funding with September 2023 liquidity ratios of LDR of 62%, LCR of 187% and NSFR of 155%(4) which compare to 58%, 192% and 164% respectively at December 2022. The majority of our excess liquidity is deposited with the Central Bank of Ireland (?29.5bn) and Bank of England (?4.1bn).
The fully loaded CET1 at the end of September was 16.2% comfortably ahead of regulatory requirements. The primary driver of the increase since June (CET1: 15.7%) was strong organic capital generation which was partially offset by a dividend devengo(5).
Sostenibilidad
Ambiental:
· Having secured a Corporate Power Purchase Agreement with NTR plc in October 2022 to provide up to 80% of the Group's energy needs along with additional capacity for the national grid, work continues to bring these solar farms to operation in the near term
· The Group issued its fifth green bond in October 2023 raising ?750m (total ESG bonds issued ?5.75bn) helping to finance our ?10bn climate action fund which is on track for completion by the end of 2023
Social:
· Introduction of healthcare benefits for all employees from January 2024 and from November 2023 support for carers with up to ten days paid leave per annum for staff who provide critical care for a dependent
· Launched the AIB Community ?1 Million Fund 2023 to support 70 local charities; c. 16,000 nominations received from our customers, our personas and members of the public
Gobernancia:
· Having returned to majority private ownership in the first half, the State's shareholding was 45.96% at 16 Octubre 2023
· Our remuneration policy was updated to reflect our intention to provide healthcare benefits from 2024 and variable remuneration based on performance in 2023, payable in 2024
Outlook
As we approach the end of our current strategic cycle, we have made significant progress on transforming the Group. With a supportive domestic economy and a changed operating environment, we are well-positioned for the future. We are now planning for the next strategic cycle and our focus will remain on supporting our customers, creating value for all our stakeholders and delivering sustainable returns. We look forward to updating the market with our new medium-term targets, including our capital distribution plans, on 6 March 2024 when we publish our full year 2023 financial results.
Orientación año completo 2023
We anticipate 2023 to be an exceptionally strong year with a RoTE in excess of 20% and our updated guidance is as follows:
· NII is expected to be > ?3.75bn with NIM > 3%
· Other income is expected to be c. ?850m
· Costs are expected to be c. ?1.8bn with CIR of c. 40%
· CoR expected to be at the lower end of 30-40bps through-the-cycle range
· Bank levies and regulatory fees are expected to be c. ?165m
· Se espera que los costos excepcionales sean c. ?150m
· Customer loans are expected to grow by c. 10%
***
Conferencia telefónica con analistas
Colin Hunt, CEO and Donal Galvin, CFO, will host a conference call today at 08.30 GMT, details as follows:
CONFERENCIA
Republica de Irlanda | 353 0 1 436 0959 |
UK / International | +44 0 33 0551 0200 |
Local de EE. UU. | +1 786 697 3501 |
Contraseña del evento: | AIB |
Please dial in 5-10 minutes prior to the start time using the number / event password above |
Nota: Las cifras presentadas anteriormente pueden estar sujetas a redondeo
abreviaturas:
FTE: equivalentes a tiempo completo
CIR: Cost income ratio
ECAI: Energy, Climate Action & Infrastructure
Métricas de liquidez: Relación préstamo-depósito (LDR); Ratio de cobertura de liquidez (LCR); Ratio de financiación estable neta (NSFR)
(1) RoTE = (PAT - AT1) / (CET1 @ 13.5% de los RWA)
(2) Costos antes de gravámenes bancarios y tasas regulatorias y partidas excepcionales
(3) Source: Mortgage drawdowns BPFI Sept 2023
(4) Sujeto a finalización
(5) El artículo 2 del Reglamento (UE) n.º 241/2014 exige que se deduzca del patrimonio un cargo previsible, siendo el ratio máximo de reparto de dividendos según la política interna de dividendos del Grupo
Para más información, por favor póngase en contacto con:
Niamh Hore / Siobhain Walsh | Arroz McDonnell |
Relaciones con los inversores | Relaciones con los medios |
Grupo AIB | Grupo AIB |
Dublín | Dublín |
Tel: + 353-86-3135647 / + 353-87-3956864 | Tel: + 353-87-7390743 |
email: GME@dhr-rgv.com | email: GME@dhr-rgv.com |
Declaraciones prospectivas
Este documento contiene ciertas declaraciones prospectivas con respecto a la situación financiera, los resultados de las operaciones y los negocios del Grupo AIB y algunos de los planes y objetivos del Grupo. Estas declaraciones prospectivas pueden identificarse por el hecho de que no se relacionan únicamente con hechos históricos o actuales. Las declaraciones prospectivas a veces utilizan palabras como "apuntar", "anticipar", "objetivo", "esperar", "estimar", "pretender", "planificar", "objetivo", "creer", "podría", "podría". ', 'querrá', 'buscará', 'continuará', 'debería', 'asumirá' u otras palabras de significado similar. Ejemplos de declaraciones prospectivas incluyen, entre otras, declaraciones sobre la situación financiera futura del Grupo, estructura de capital, participación del Gobierno en el Grupo, crecimiento de ingresos, pérdidas crediticias, estrategia comercial, costos proyectados, índices de capital, estimaciones de gastos de capital y planes y objetivos para operaciones futuras. Debido a que dichas declaraciones están inherentemente sujetas a riesgos e incertidumbres, los resultados reales pueden diferir materialmente de aquellos expresados o implícitos en dicha información prospectiva. Por su naturaleza, las declaraciones prospectivas implican riesgo e incertidumbre porque se relacionan con eventos y dependen de circunstancias que ocurrirán en el futuro. Hay una serie de factores que podrían causar que los resultados y desarrollos reales difieran materialmente de aquellos expresados o implícitos en estas declaraciones prospectivas. Estos se establecen en Principales riesgos en las páginas 23 a 25 del Informe Financiero Anual 2022 y se actualizan en la página 33 del Informe Financiero Semestral 2023. Además de las cuestiones relacionadas con el negocio del Grupo, el desempeño futuro se verá afectado por la capacidad, junto con los gobiernos y otras partes interesadas, para medir, gestionar y mitigar los impactos del cambio climático de manera efectiva, el impacto de una mayor inflación en la confianza de los clientes y las consideraciones de los mercados económicos y financieros irlandeses, del Reino Unido y de Europa y el mundo en general. El desempeño futuro se verá afectado aún más por las consecuencias directas e indirectas de la guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania en las condiciones macroeconómicas europeas y globales. Cualquier declaración prospectiva realizada por o en nombre del Grupo se refiere únicamente a la fecha en que se realiza. El Grupo advierte que la lista de factores importantes de las páginas 23 a 25 del Informe Financiero Anual 2022 no es exhaustiva. Los inversores y otras personas deben considerar cuidadosamente los factores anteriores y otras incertidumbres y eventos al tomar una decisión de inversión basada en cualquier declaración prospectiva.
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